Poll: Oregon City, Rural District 39 Very Open to Caudle's Candidacy
Following up on polling from earlier this month that showed Mike Caudle with a real opportunity to unseat House Majority Leader Wayne Scott in House District 39, the Caudle campaign today publicly released geographic data from the survey showing voters in both Oregon City and the rural areas of House District 39 particularly amenable to Caudle's candidacy.
Two-term incumbent Wayne Scott has fairly solid support in his base of Canby but is surprisingly weak in both Oregon City and the surrounding rural communities that make up the remainder of the district. While Scott's favorables and approval rating are relatively high in Canby (63 percent and 50 percent, respectively), they are significantly lower in the rest of the district, which makes up roughly two-thirds of the electorate. In Oregon City, Scott's favorables are just 38 percent and his approval rating is just 33 percent. Just 20 percent of rural voters view Scott favorably and only one-quarter give him a positive job approval rating.
In an uniformed head-to-head matchup, Scott has a majority of support in Canby but receives a plurality of under 40 percent in both Oregon City and the surrounding rural communities. However, after positive and negative statements are read about both candidates, Caudle gains majority support from the rural areas of the district and a plurality of support from Oregon City voters. Scott still holds a majority of support in Canby on this so-called "informed ballot test."
“The data indicate that Mike Caudle is in an excellent position to score the upset come November,” says Joel Wright, who conducted the poll. “The key is for Caudle to be able to take his case to the voters because they certainly appear receptive to it.”
The survey of 300 likely, 2006 general election voters in Oregon House District 39 was conducted August 7-10, 2006 by Wright Consulting Services of Arizona. The margin of error for the poll is 5.8 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error for subgroups varies and is higher than that of the sample as a whole.
Joel Wright is an independent professional researcher who has worked on public policy issues and political campaigns for the past 24 years. He has worked on a wide variety of political campaigns throughout the West, amassing a winning percentage of 84%, and including campaigns for U.S President, US Congress, gubernatorial, state legislative and local county and city elections. He also has worked on ballot initiatives and referenda over the years, particularly in Arizona, in addition to conducting surveys for progressive organizations such as MyDD.com and the Courage Campaign.
Two-term incumbent Wayne Scott has fairly solid support in his base of Canby but is surprisingly weak in both Oregon City and the surrounding rural communities that make up the remainder of the district. While Scott's favorables and approval rating are relatively high in Canby (63 percent and 50 percent, respectively), they are significantly lower in the rest of the district, which makes up roughly two-thirds of the electorate. In Oregon City, Scott's favorables are just 38 percent and his approval rating is just 33 percent. Just 20 percent of rural voters view Scott favorably and only one-quarter give him a positive job approval rating.
In an uniformed head-to-head matchup, Scott has a majority of support in Canby but receives a plurality of under 40 percent in both Oregon City and the surrounding rural communities. However, after positive and negative statements are read about both candidates, Caudle gains majority support from the rural areas of the district and a plurality of support from Oregon City voters. Scott still holds a majority of support in Canby on this so-called "informed ballot test."
“The data indicate that Mike Caudle is in an excellent position to score the upset come November,” says Joel Wright, who conducted the poll. “The key is for Caudle to be able to take his case to the voters because they certainly appear receptive to it.”
The survey of 300 likely, 2006 general election voters in Oregon House District 39 was conducted August 7-10, 2006 by Wright Consulting Services of Arizona. The margin of error for the poll is 5.8 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error for subgroups varies and is higher than that of the sample as a whole.
Joel Wright is an independent professional researcher who has worked on public policy issues and political campaigns for the past 24 years. He has worked on a wide variety of political campaigns throughout the West, amassing a winning percentage of 84%, and including campaigns for U.S President, US Congress, gubernatorial, state legislative and local county and city elections. He also has worked on ballot initiatives and referenda over the years, particularly in Arizona, in addition to conducting surveys for progressive organizations such as MyDD.com and the Courage Campaign.
posted by Jonathan Singer at 11:37 AM
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