Huge news folks... The results of our polling just came in this past weekend and we have a real race on our hands. When likely voters are read positive and negative statements about both Mike Caudle and Wayne Scott, the race is STATISTICALLY TIED, with Scott at 41 percent and Caudle at 39 percent.
If ever there were a time to redouble efforts, this is it. If you can, head over to our
fundraising link and donate a few dollars,
tell US Rep. Earl Blumenauer you want him to support Mike Caudle, and sign up to
volunteer for the campaign. As you can see from the poll, with your help WE CAN WIN.
Poll Finds Majority Leader Scott Vulnerable to ChallengeDemocrat Mike Caudle, a relative unknown, has a message that resonates with votersOregon City, OR – House Majority Leader Wayne Scott, R-Canby, could be in jeopardy this fall according to polling released Monday by Scott’s Democratic challenger Mike Caudle.
In a head-to-head match up between Scott and Caudle, the incumbent Republican holds a 46 percent to 25 percent lead over his Democratic challenger. However, after positive and negative statements were read about both candidates, Scott’s lead evaporates.
When asked who they would vote for in November given the statements read about each of the two candidates, 41 percent of likely voters in House District 39 indicated they would support Scott while 39 percent would vote for Caudle – a statistical dead heat. Caudle’s message resonates particularly strongly with independent voters in the district, among whom he holds close to a 2 to 1 lead, 49 percent to 26 percent.
“The data indicate that Mike Caudle is in an excellent position to score the upset come November,” says Joel Wright, who conducted the poll. “The key is for Caudle to be able to take his case to the voters because they certainly appear receptive to it.”
Representative Scott’s numbers on key measures are very underwhelming, Wright says. Fewer than a majority of voters have a positive image of him or give him a positive job performance rating for his tenure in the House. Independent and minor party voters are least likely to approve of Scott, with just 16 percent giving him favorable job ratings.
Voters in House District 39, which includes Oregon City, Canby and surrounding areas of Clackamas County, are generally dour in their outlook towards the state. Just 31 percent believe that Oregon is moving in the right direction while 46 percent believe it is headed off on the wrong track.
Non-affiliated and minor party voters in the district are even more pessimistic about the direction of the state than the district as a whole, with just 19 percent saying the state is on the right track. Middle-income households, those earning between $35,000 and $50,000 per year, hold similar feelings, with only 21 percent believing the state is moving in the right direction.
The survey of 300 likely, 2006 general election voters in Oregon House District 39 was conducted August 7-10, 2006 by Wright Consulting Services of Arizona. The margin of error for the poll is 5.8 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence. The margin of error for subgroups varies and is higher than that of the sample as a whole.
Joel Wright is an independent professional researcher who has worked on public policy issues and political campaigns for the past 24 years. He has worked on a wide variety of political campaigns throughout the West, amassing a winning percentage of 84%, and including campaigns for U.S President, US Congress, gubernatorial, state legislative and local county and city elections. He also has worked on ballot initiatives and referenda over the years, particularly in Arizona, in addition to conducting surveys for progressive organizations such as MyDD.com and the Courage Campaign.
